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Free Online Poker Guide To Working Out Poker Odds If You Don’t Have A Math Degree
Many players, especially us players of free online poker games, avoid the “technical” side of the game, the calculation of odds, etc. After all, it’s the dreaded “M” (math) word.
Unfortunately, the fact is that to be successful in poker, it’s a key part of the game that you need to master, especially if you have aspirations of playing live cash games.
The main problem for many free and real money poker players is that it’s so complicated. For example:
Suppose you have 8-7 and the flop comes 5-6-A. You want to calculate the probability that you will hit your straight later.
If you use a rigorous mathematical solution, you will arrive at this:
The cards that will help you are the Four and the Nine. There are eight of them left in the game. The probability of you hitting them later is P + (1-P)Q, where P is the probability of hitting your hand on the turn and Q is the probability of you hitting the river. It’s P + (1-P)Q because (1-P)Q is the probability that you will hit on the river if you don’t complete your hand on the turn.
Here are now the values of P and Q.
– P = 8 cards still on the deck to help you divided by 52-5 = 47 cards remaining = 8/47.
– Q = 8 cards still on the draw pile to help you, because you haven’t finished the Turn divided by 52-6 (because there are already 6 cards out, your hole cards and the Board) = 8/46.
The overall answer is 8/47 + (1 – 8/47)(8/46) = 0.170 + (0.829)(0.174) = 0.170 + 0.144 = 0.314 = 31%. You have a 31% chance of hitting your straight later.
Ouch, it’s fun and it’s beyond many of us! However, in a table, you usually don’t have a calculator (and even if you do, you still need to know what to put in there ;).
And many poker players only know outs, but not so much basic probability theory. How is? By the way, an out is an invisible card which, if drawn, will improve your chances of winning the hand. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Out_%28poker%29 for the full list of outs.
So what’s the quick, easy and straightforward way to calculate odds?
This is the approximation formula: taking the 8-7 hand above, we:
– Divide 8 by 50, because 47 is close to 50, and get 0.16?
– Double it again and you get 0.32.
– That’s a reliable estimate.
– After all, poker players in games don’t need exact solutions; they only need a clue as to where they are standing.
– In this case, “about 32%” is a sufficient answer.
So, during the Flop, here is the approximation:
– Get the number of your outs, then multiply it by 4, then put a percent sign.
– This is a reliable ballpark percentage of your hand.
– During the Round, if you still have outs left, multiply it by 2, then put a percentage sign.
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